(This item first appeared in the Brighton Argus on 6th March 2024)
Over the last 45 years I have closely observed and, on occasions, participated in eleven general election campaigns in Brighton Pavilion. Yet never before has there been such an odd campaign as that being run by the Labour Party. The party is giving every impression that it doesn’t want to win!
The constituency had become a safe seat for the Green Party because of the huge personal vote built by Caroline Lucas. But her decision to stand down at the election opens up a once-in-a-generation opportunity for Labour. Not only has the Green Party suffered its worst local election defeat in fifteen years, in Siân Berry it has selected a candidate previously unknown in Brighton. Ms Berry is hedging her bets by standing, once again, for a seat on the Greater London Assembly.
I had previously forecast a Labour gain in Brighton Pavilion at the general election, but three things have made me rethink this. The first is the energetic and high-profile campaign being run by Siân Berry backed by Caroline Lucas. The second is the inexplicable decision of Labour to delay its selection until mid December, thereby giving Siân a free run for five months. Then thirdly, the launch of the Labour campaign was delayed, for good reasons, until February, thereby extending the Green’s unopposed run for a further two months.
The latest prediction from Electoral Calculus, which analyses recent opinion polls, forecasts a Green win with Siân Berry securing almost 50% of the vote to Tom Gray’s 36%.
There is a further reason why I think Tom Gray will lose. Now that the Labour campaign has been launched, what a strange campaign it is providing to be. There was a well-supported launch event when Labour activists from all over came to support Tom Gray and to knock on doors. At the time of writing, there have been just a few other campaign events, one which Tom apologised for missing as he was at a conference in London, and another the weekend before last. I am assured by Labour Party members that he is out campaigning several times a week.
But where is the momentum for his campaign? Siân Berry is forever appearing on social media, at events, and in The Argus. We have received several leaflets and reports from her, and she is popping up all over the place. I’ve bumped into her in the street, at a vigil, on the bus, and in a local cafe. By contrast, we have received just one leaflet from Tom Gray saying he was sorry to have missed us when he called (although it wasn’t he who did call).
Unlike Siân, Tom’s supporters say he is not a professional politician and that he works full time running a national organisation. I had hoped to meet with Tom, as I have with Siân and other parliamentary candidates but, in spite of several requests, his diary hasn’t permitted it. I had hoped to get a better understanding of Tom himself, how his campaign is going, and his views on some key issues. In the absence of a meeting, I sent him some questions about policy and his campaign. The reply from ‘Team Tom’ did not answer any of my questions but hoped that “you and he can find time for a chat soon”.
Tom Gray (right) with Cllr David McGregor and Lloyd Russell-Moyle at the British Kebab Awards (photo: David McGregor / X formerly Twitter)
I was told that he is spending his evenings and weekends canvassing constituents. However, he had time to attend the British Kebab Awards in London. Meanwhile there are complaints from constituents who have not had responses from Tom, such as Siân Rees who said on Twitter that Tom should “answer queries from his future constituents … Still trying, 30+ messages in, no luck so far.” So it’s not just me!
I tried getting a response from the regional Labour Party to one of my questions. In spite of a chaser email, I heard nothing other than an acknowledgement that my email had been received.
One has to ask, therefore, whether Labour, and Tom for that matter, are really committed to running a winning campaign in Brighton Pavilion. From my experience of elections, Labour looks perilously close to having given up on their best chance of winning the seat in over a decade. The only explanation for the poor campaign is that Tom Gray and his backers believe that while flying under the radar that they will be swept to victory in a Labour landslide. If that is their strategy, they will be handing the seat to Siân Berry and the Greens for the next fifteen years. Tom Gray and the constituency Labour Party must really up their game.
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