Labour election leaflet in Queens Park calls for ‘virile representation’

Following the resignations of the ‘Leicester Two’ from Brighton and Hove City Council, there are by-elections coming up in the Queens Park and the Kemptown wards.

I was reading a Labour leaflet from Queens Park, most of which I agree with. There was talk of lower rents, improving education, and the lot of people experiencing a cost-of-living crisis (“the lot of the poorer inhabitants” the leaflet said). There was a focus on unemployment, housing schemes, empty homes, and transport.

What struck me most was, according to the leaflet, the need for “representation of a virile type”, not something you read every day in election material.

In case you were wondering, this wasn’t a contemporary election leaflet from Labour’s Camilla Gauge, but one from 1935 when the Labour candidate was Richard Polling. I don’t know whether he was elected on that occasion but he did become a councillor, as did his son-in-law, Stan Fitch, and Stan’s son, the late Brian Fitch. It was Stan who gave me a copy of this leaflet.

Times have changed but the issues raised by Richard Polling – education, housing, rents, nursery education, etc. – remain as relevant today as they were in 1935. But as for ‘virile’ representation and leadership, I doubt it will be a concept that will loom large in Labour’s general election campaign!

Labour seems to have given up on winning Brighton Pavilion

(This item first appeared in the Brighton Argus on 6th March 2024)

Over the last 45 years I have closely observed and, on occasions, participated in eleven general election campaigns in Brighton Pavilion. Yet never before has there been such an odd campaign as that being run by the Labour Party. The party is giving every impression that it doesn’t want to win!

The constituency had become a safe seat for the Green Party because of the huge personal vote built by Caroline Lucas. But her decision to stand down at the election opens up a once-in-a-generation opportunity for Labour. Not only has the Green Party suffered its worst local election defeat in fifteen years, in Siân Berry it has selected a candidate previously unknown in Brighton. Ms Berry is hedging her bets by standing, once again, for a seat on the Greater London Assembly. 

I had previously forecast a Labour gain in Brighton Pavilion at the general election, but three things have made me rethink this. The first is the energetic and high-profile campaign being run by Siân Berry backed by Caroline Lucas. The second is the inexplicable decision of Labour to delay its selection until mid December, thereby giving Siân a free run for five months. Then thirdly, the launch of the Labour campaign was delayed, for good reasons, until February, thereby extending the Green’s unopposed run for a further two months.

The latest prediction from Electoral Calculus, which analyses recent opinion polls, forecasts a Green win with Siân Berry securing almost 50% of the vote to Tom Gray’s 36%.

There is a further reason why I think Tom Gray will lose. Now that the Labour campaign has been launched, what a strange campaign it is providing to be. There was a well-supported launch event when Labour activists from all over came to support Tom Gray and to knock on doors. At the time of writing, there have been just a few other campaign events, one which Tom apologised for missing as he was at a conference in London, and another the weekend before last. I am assured by Labour Party members that he is out campaigning several times a week. 

But where is the momentum for his campaign? Siân Berry is forever appearing on social media, at events, and in The Argus. We have received several leaflets and reports from her, and she is popping up all over the place. I’ve bumped into her in the street, at a vigil, on the bus, and in a local cafe. By contrast, we have received just one leaflet from Tom Gray saying he was sorry to have missed us when he called (although it wasn’t he who did call).

Unlike Siân, Tom’s supporters say he is not a professional politician and that he works full time running a national organisation. I had hoped to meet with Tom, as I have with Siân and other parliamentary candidates but, in spite of several requests, his diary hasn’t permitted it. I had hoped to get a better understanding of Tom himself, how his campaign is going, and his views on some key issues. In the absence of a meeting, I sent him some questions about policy and his campaign. The reply from ‘Team Tom’ did not answer any of my questions but hoped that “you and he can find time for a chat soon”. 

Tom Gray (right) with Cllr David McGregor and Lloyd Russell-Moyle at the British Kebab Awards (photo: David McGregor / X formerly Twitter)

I was told that he is spending his evenings and weekends canvassing constituents. However, he had time to attend the British Kebab Awards in London. Meanwhile there are complaints from constituents who have not had responses from Tom, such as Siân Rees who said on Twitter that Tom should “answer queries from his future constituents … Still trying, 30+ messages in, no luck so far.” So it’s not just me!

I tried getting a response from the regional Labour Party to one of my questions. In spite of a chaser email, I heard nothing other than an acknowledgement that my email had been received.

One has to ask, therefore, whether Labour, and Tom for that matter, are really committed to running a winning campaign in Brighton Pavilion. From my experience of elections, Labour looks perilously close to having given up on their best chance of winning the seat in over a decade.  The only explanation for the poor campaign is that Tom Gray and his backers believe that while flying under the radar that they will be swept to victory in a Labour landslide. If that is their strategy, they will be handing the seat to Siân Berry and the Greens for the next fifteen years.  Tom Gray and the constituency Labour Party must really up their game.

Let hostilities commence in Brighton Pavilion

At long last, several months after the Green’s Siân Berry launched her energetic and high-profile campaign, the Labour campaign in Brighton Pavilion has got into gear. Tom Gray’s election campaign was formally launched on Saturday morning and the streets of some central wards were awash with door knockers who had gathered from all over the south east. The Conservative campaign with the unrelentingly optimistic Khobi Vallis in Brighton Kemptown took to Woodingdean while the sitting Labour MP, Lloyd Russell-Moyle, was off campaigning in Brighton Pavilion.

Labour campaigned strongly in the two Worthing seats and in Hastings.

In Brighton Pavilion Labour campaigners came up against two negative main issues on the doorstep. The first was Labour’s most recent U-turn on its £28 billion pledge to tackle the climate crisis. This plays right into the hands of Siân Berry, and in an ultra marginal seat like Pavilion, this will be one of several factors that could decide the outcome. 

The second issue was Gaza, a concern I heard dismissed by a Londoner out on behalf of Tom Gray. She said that it is just a few middle class people who are concerned about this. Hmmm?  Loyalty to Labour’s spineless leader, Sir Keir Starmer, is one thing. Total denial is another. Labour is already taking private polling on this issue, such is the concern by national campaign managers that Starmer’s unconditional backing of Israel will harm the election campaign.

What I thought was most unfortunate in Tom Gray’s ‘Sorry I missed you’ leaflet was this statement: “We have a Green MP, but it hasn’t stopped Rishi Sunak digging oil wells or sewage pouring into our sea. Only a Labour government can do that.”  Yes, there is a solitary Green MP . But there are over 200 Labour MPs and that hasn’t stopped “Rishi Sunak digging oil wells or sewage pouring into our sea.” It could be said that Labour is over 200 times more culpable than Caroline Lucas for this failure. 

Feargal Sharkey with Green Party Peer, Baroness Jenny Jones of Moulsecoomb

Such campaigning rhetoric, Tom, does not cast you in a good light. I am not sure that Feargal Sharkey, who helped launch your campaign on Saturday, would endorse such an anti-Green sentiment as he is prepared to work across the political divide on clean water issues, including with the Green Party.  I imagine that particular line was fed to you by some faceless regional communication officer. My advice to you, Tom, is aim high in your campaign and don’t become the puppet of Labour’s regional office.  Nonsense such as blaming Caroline Lucas for single-handedly failing to stop the Conservatives from polluting the environment simply makes your campaign look stupid.

Will a Labour government stop the water companies polluting our sea and rivers? I hope, if elected, that it will. But if there is any cost to the Exchequer, Chancellor Rachel Reeves might have something else to say about this.

Update 12/02/2024 11.08am: Siân Berry held a rally at the weekend as well as door knocking as part of her campaign. She said at the rally: ““The people of Brighton Pavilion deserve a strong voice in Parliament, unafraid and unwhipped. If I’m elected to continue in Caroline Lucas’ footsteps I will be fearless in advocating for the things that matter to people”.

Note 13/02/2024 8.35am: The original version of this post had a scurrilous reference to Helena Dollimore, Labour’s candidate in Hastings and Rye. This has now been moved to a post of its own.

 

 

It’s Gomez Gray against Smokin’ Siân for the undisputed heavyweight title of Brighton Pavilion

(This item first appeared in the Brighton Argus on 3rd January 2024)

Ladies and Gentlemen, the main contest on this election card is the head-to-head fight for the undisputed heavyweight championship of Brighton Pavilion. In the red corner is Tom ‘Gomez’ Gray fighting out of Brighton via Liverpool. In the green corner, ‘Smokin’ Siân Berry from Camden in old London Town.

The battle lines are drawn for the campaign to succeed Caroline Lucas as the Member of Parliament for Brighton Pavilion. This will be a tough contest to call. Neither is likely to strike a knockout blow and it could come down to a split decision on points or, at least, a handful of votes.

The electoral tide is with Labour. When Caroline was first elected in 2010, Labour was way down in the polls, and the big ‘M’ – momentum (not the left wing organisation) – was with the Greens who were poised to seize control of the City Council the following year. The situation is now reversed. Labour enjoys a healthy national lead in the polls, notwithstanding the tepid Sir Keir Starmer. The Greens locally are now in the Doldrums having been humiliated in May’s elections to Brighton and Hove City Council while Labour had its best result ever.

Siân and Tom have different problems when it comes to commitments they might wish to make to the electorate. Tom can’t promise anything meaningful without incurring the wrath of Rachel Reeves if there is any cost attached. Meanwhile Siân has the opposite problem. Any promises she makes will be meaningless because, even if elected, she will never be in a position to deliver on any of them.

Labour should not take this as a reason to discourage people from voting Green. Caroline Lucas has shown that a lone Green MP can effectively shine a light on issues. Not so for yet another Labour backbencher who will be lost in the crowd, especially a backbencher in a party likely to have a stonking great majority.  Hundreds of under-employed backbenchers will wish to be seen by the Whips as being on best behaviour in order to secure promotion to the lowest bag-carrying position. 

Tom will face tricky questions over local issues, such as the proposed closure of St Bartholomew’s school in the constituency. Can he criticise, even campaign against, the Labour administration that is currently consulting on the closure? Siân will have no such difficulty and is already taking a stand on issues for which she will never be responsible. Caroline used to distance herself from the Green administration so much so that people used to say that they would never vote Green again but had no hesitation in saying that they would vote for her.

There is one specific issues that Tom will need to clarify: his views on women’s sex-based rights. Labour dodged a bullet by rejecting Eddie Izzard as its candidate. Not only does Eddie not support single-sex spaces for women, he actually intrudes on them on a regular basis. Tom will need to say where he stands. The trans rights lobby, including in his own party, is very vociferous, especially on social media, but they are not significant electorally.

All current Labour MPs were elected on the following manifesto commitment: “Ensure that the single-sex-based exemptions contained in the Equality Act 2010 are understood and fully enforced in service provision.” Last summer the Labour Party shifted from its previous support for self-identification which would have allowed people to legally change gender without a medical diagnosis. The party has also recommitted itself to ensuring that some single-sex services and places should be accessed only by biological women.

The Greens have lost support amongst many women and men because of their uncompromising policies on trans rights over women’s sex-based rights. Siân has made this a major part of her pitch saying she will never compromise on this. She even stood down as party leader because of a slight adjustment in the Green Party policy. Siân should expect questions on her position on women’s sex-based rights and, if she stands by her long-standing position, she can expect to lose support. There is also an employment tribunal discrimination case being brought against the Green Party by Shahrar Ali who was dismissed from his role as party spokesperson because of his support for women’s sex-based rights. This case might yet reflect negatively on Siân.  

Notwithstanding the above, in Tom and Siân we have two very engaging, strong candidates who will provide us voters in Brighton Pavilion with a pleasant dilemma as to whom we want as our next MP. Support for women’s sex-based rights might just prove decisive in a close contest.

Is Sir Keir Starmer Labour’s Weakest Link?

In recent times, the polling company, Survation, has had the best track record in getting its polls right in the run-up to a general election.  I have always trusted its forecasts more than others.

In its last poll before the end of the year, it has given Labour a 17 point lead, up three to 45, compared to the Conservative’s 28 points, up two points. (Both increases are compared to fieldwork undertaken in February 2023).

Survation has said: “We continue to find the Labour Party approximately 17 points ahead of the Conservatives with no observable positive reaction from the public to the various relaunches and campaigns coming from the Government throughout 2023.  Very roughly, at the coming General Election, the Conservative Party will need to have a 4-5 point lead in the polls over Labour, vs the current 17 point deficit, to secure a majority of 1 seat. This is probably the strongest argument for a ‘late’ October 2024 General Election – the certainty of losing if an early election was called.”

There are two other very interesting findings. The first is that the Green Party is down three points to just two. I can’t remember when the party was at such a low ebb.  This is probably the result of Labour continuing to fly high in the polls. It does not bode well for the Greens in their four target seats (including Brighton Pavilion which they will be defending).

Before Labour activists get too excited, the question on who would make the best prime minister will not make comfortable reading. For all the incompetence, failed relaunches and broken commitments of Rishi Sunak, he has actually closed the gap on Sir Keir Starmer. The Labour leader’s lead was nine points. It is now down to just six. Starmer is less popular than his party by eight points (45 to 37). Sunak, by comparison, is three points more popular than his party (31 to 28). At the start of the year Starmer was on 39 and Sunak 31. So Sunak’s rating has held, nudging up by one point, Starmer has reduced by three.

Labour is still on course for a thumping majority, but it must stop running the campaign as a presidential election because Starmer just doesn’t have it. He could end up being that slab of uneaten, unappetising turkey that is still in your fridge a week after Christmas.

Labour’s Selection in Brighton Pavilion: Having Eddie Izzard on the shortlist is an absolute joke

I have previously commented on the incomprehensible decision of the Labour Party to have delayed the selection of its candidate for Brighton Pavilion until now. The Greens were quick off the mark selecting Siân Berry. She has hardly missed a beat as she establishes herself locally, and is being seen out and about throughout the constituency. As a Londoner with no previous links to Brighton, she has been learning the geography of the place and must have, by now, learned that the No 50 bus serves Hollingdean.

Conversely, Labour has just announced its shortlist of candidates to become its parliamentary candidate.

I am very sorry that, Bella Sankey has decided not to put herself forward (there are some suggestions that she was not shortlisted but I doubt that even the Labour Party would be that stupid).

Eddie Izzard (photo credit Brighton Argus / Andrew Gardner)

The Argus has reported that it understands four candidates are in the running to be the Labour candidate for Brighton Pavilion: comedian and actor Eddie Izzard, music industry activist and Pavilion resident Tom Gray, Goldsmid councillor Birgit Miller, and North Portslade councillor for Lucy Helliwell. Three of these, Eddie, Tom and Birgit have confirmed this on social media.

I am amazed that Eddie Izzard has been shortlisted. If Izzard is chosen as the candidate, Labour will lose an advantage it has over Siân Berry – that she is an outsider being parachuted into the constituency. While Siân, as I have said above, is getting stuck into her long campaign, Izzard plans to be in New York between January and March performing Hamlet at the Greenwich House Theatre. What a sense of entitlement: I want to be the candidate but don’t let it interfere with my wonderful acting career. Is this the level of commitment Brighton Pavilion can expect from Eddie Izzard the MP? What a joke, Labour. Get your act together.

Finally, the Lib Dem’s have selected Ashley Ridley, a football coach and youth worker, who is hoping to ‘flip’ the seat to the Lib Dem’s, a prospect about as likely as Nick Clegg keeping to his campaign pledge in 2010 to abolish student fees. Memories of this utter betrayal run deep.

Has Labour sabotaged its own campaigns in Brighton Pavilion and in East Worthing & Shoreham?

(This item first appeared in the Brighton Argus on 15th November 2023)

Following the King’s Speech, there is speculation now as to when the general election will be called. Three dates have been suggested: May, the early autumn, or December 2024. The election must be held by January 2025.

My guess is that Rishi Sunak will go for late September or early October. An April poll would be too early for any Budget giveaway to have any effect. December would mean very dark evenings, although a low turnout might benefit the Conservatives. The reason I believe it will be September or October is because any tax cut or give-away bonanza in the spring Budget will have had time to settle in.  However, any such election gimmick will probably be too little and too late for this walking-dead Conservative government.

In Brighton and Hove, the early autumn date would mean that students will not have returned in time to register to vote, something that would seriously disadvantage the Greens in Brighton Pavilion who rely on a large student turnout.

Previously, I have forecast that Labour would win seven seats in Sussex (including taking Brighton Pavilion from the Greens). I have predicted the same number of seats for the Conservatives with the Liberal Democrats winning two. This forecast is now being compromised by the inexplicable actions of the Labour Party which appears to be doing its utmost not to win in East Worthing and Shoreham, and in Brighton Pavilion.

In the Worthing seat, not a single local candidate has been shortlisted. The party has denied party members the options of selecting as their candidate either of two respected Labour councillors, Cat Arnold and Carl Walker, such a shortsighted decision. Labour has performed phenomenally well to gain control of the Borough Council, yet the party seems not to want to build on its success in this constituency. Meanwhile, in Worthing West, the Labour leader of the council, Dr Becky Cooper, has been shortlisted. The party would be foolish not to select her as its candidate as she stands far-and-away the best chance of being elected.

Labour has never won either Worthing seat but the migration of families from Brighton has changed the demographics, just as happened previously in Hove and Portslade, once the safest-of-safe Conservative seats, now solidly Labour.

The Green Party’s Siân Berry who has hit the ground running in Brighton Pavilion

Meanwhile, in Brighton Pavilion, the Greens selected Siân Berry several months ago. She has hit the ground running and her name recognition is increasing. Labour, on the other hand, is dragging its feet. Originally the selection was due to take place in September. Two contenders, Eddie Izzard and Tom Gray, have already announced that they are seeking the nomination. Even if the selection was to take place now, the problem for Labour is it would run into the Christmas period and its candidate, whoever that might be, will have lost three months of invaluable campaigning time. Instead, they will have to wait until the new year, in the depths of winter, before launching their campaign. This would be less of a problem if the election is in September or October but might prove to be a fatal error if Sunak goes for May 2nd or 9th.

There is still no word from the leader of the Council, Bella Sankey: will she be seeking the nomination? The timing of the decision by Caroline Lucas to stand down has not helped Bella. As a relatively new councillor, and having been leader for just over six months, it might appear that Bella is being opportunist by becoming the candidate and subsequently MP, jumping from one opportunity to the next to get into Parliament. 

But if she doesn’t put herself forward now, which would be a shame, the opportunity to become an MP in the City she loves will have passed. By 2029, whoever is elected in 2024, be it Siân Berry or one of the other less-than-convincing Labour contenders, will have established themselves as the sitting MP and they will be hard, if not impossible, to shift. By 2029, Bella won’t be the exciting new kid on the block but she will be burdened by the failings of her administration, a fate that inevitably befalls every leader of the Council.

And by 2029, Labour will not be enjoying the bumper lead it currently has in the polls, thanks to the ever-increasing shambles of a government being led by Rishi Sunak. Rather, a sense of sheer disappointment and bewildered incomprehension will have set in as the Starmer government fails to provide the improvements and the housing that the country needs, unlike the Blair government which on the domestic front in 1997 things really did get better.