Some Immediate Reflections on Election Results in Sussex

Last Thursday’s elections (the results in Brighton and Hove and for the Police and Crime Commissioner were announced in the last two hours) have raised some intriguing considerations for the pending general election. The key points are:

• The re-election of Katy Bourne as the Police and Crime Commissioner
• Labour winning a majority of seats on Adur District Council
• The Greens’ and Independents’ successes in Hastings
• Labour holding both seats in by-elections in Brighton

Katy Bourne (photo credit: Felice Southwell / Brighton and Hove News)

It is the re-election of Katy Bourne that probably has the greatest significance. While some dismiss the election for the PCC as irrelevant and that the low turnout renders the result inconsequential, I think otherwise. This election covered every ward and constituency in Sussex. While the Conservatives currently hold every constituency in Sussex other than the three seats in Brighton And Hove, there are forecasts that they will hold just seven of the 17 seats at the general election with Labour winning seven, the Lib Dem’s two and the Greens holding on to Brighton Pavilion. 

Yet in the largest test of popular opinion, the Conservatives held on to the PCC. I suspect Katy Bourne won because she has done a good job as the PCC and is respected for her record since first being elected. This is as more a personal victory than it is a party one. As a Conservative, her vote plummeted as one would expect. But an unknown candidate might not have won for the Conservatives.

Like Katy, several of the defending Tory MPs will have a personal vote. For example, had Tim Laughton stood again his personal vote could have partially offset the hostility to the Conservatives who have just lost control of Adur District Council to Labour. I suspect, though, that even that would not have saved him.

The PCC election shows that there are still large numbers of Conservative voters across Sussex. The challenge for the Tories is to get them to actually vote, something they are more likely to do in a general election than in a local council or PCC election. That prediction of just seven Conservative MPs in Sussex might be an underestimate.

Quite remarkably, in votes cast in Brighton and Hove in the Police and Crime Commissioner 

Election, the Conservatives came second with 10,308 votes with the Greens third with 9,042 votes. One explanation was that there was tactical voting and some Green supporters lent their votes to Labour. In the general election, the same might happen in Hove & Portslade and in Brighton Kemptown, but in a straight fight between Labour and the Greens in Brighton Pavilion, that won’t happen. Who knows, some Conservatives voters might even vote Green to minimise Labour’s parliamentary majority.

Given the lacklustre campaign being run by Labour in Brighton Pavilion, the Greens and Siân Berry are coasting to a comfortable win. The only thing that might change that is for Labour to replace Tom Gray who appears to be a mere paper candidate.  I would suggest a more viable candidate would be Bella Sankey who understands campaigning and engagement. Now a Berry/Sankey duel would make for a very interesting contest.

In the two by-elections, Labour did well to hang on to both seats given the incompetence of the regional Labour Party in selecting the two candidates for the 2023 elections whose resignations triggered the by-elections. I am sure that Milla Guage and Theresa Mackey will add to the strength of the Labour Group.

Adrian Hart, of the Brighton and Hove Independents did well to increase his share of the vote in Queens Park while Labour and the Greens saw their votes go down in both wards in greater proportions than the lower turnout.

Labour election leaflet in Queens Park calls for ‘virile representation’

Following the resignations of the ‘Leicester Two’ from Brighton and Hove City Council, there are by-elections coming up in the Queens Park and the Kemptown wards.

I was reading a Labour leaflet from Queens Park, most of which I agree with. There was talk of lower rents, improving education, and the lot of people experiencing a cost-of-living crisis (“the lot of the poorer inhabitants” the leaflet said). There was a focus on unemployment, housing schemes, empty homes, and transport.

What struck me most was, according to the leaflet, the need for “representation of a virile type”, not something you read every day in election material.

In case you were wondering, this wasn’t a contemporary election leaflet from Labour’s Camilla Gauge, but one from 1935 when the Labour candidate was Richard Polling. I don’t know whether he was elected on that occasion but he did become a councillor, as did his son-in-law, Stan Fitch, and Stan’s son, the late Brian Fitch. It was Stan who gave me a copy of this leaflet.

Times have changed but the issues raised by Richard Polling – education, housing, rents, nursery education, etc. – remain as relevant today as they were in 1935. But as for ‘virile’ representation and leadership, I doubt it will be a concept that will loom large in Labour’s general election campaign!

The Labour Party should apologise for the unnecessary cost of by-elections in Brighton and Hove within a year of the local elections

Two by-elections are to be held in Brighton on 2nd May, the same day as the election for the Sussex Police and Crime Commissioner. The by-elections in Queen’s Park ward and Kemptown ward come following the resignations of Chandni Mistry and Bharti Gajjar, the so-called Leicester Two who were thrown out of the Labour Party following allegations that they don’t actually live in Brighton. A referral alleging electoral fraud was made to Sussex Police who have recently said no action will be taken over the claims.

Labour’s candidate in the Queen’s Park by-election, Camilla Gauge, with ward councillor Tristram Burden (Photo credit: Tristram Burden X / Twitter)

Council leader, Labour’s Bella Sankey, told the Argus that she was “overjoyed” by the decision of the two councillors to “do the right thing and step down” and said they should “never have been selected as candidates”.  She said: “The people of Queen’s Park and Kemp Town can now elect new councillors that will listen to their needs and serve them properly.”

I’m not sure if “overjoyed” is the right word for it. This whole mess is the making of the Labour Party who really should be offering an apology for the unnecessary cost of two by-elections. A by-election, depending on the size of the ward, costs between £12,000 and £15,000. These by-elections, together with the one held in December in South Portslade, will bring the total to three by-elections caused by Labour since last May’s local elections, at a cost of between £36,000 and £45,000. What a waste of public money at a time when cuts are being made to essential service.

The apology should come from the national or regional Labour Party who took over the selection of candidates in Brighton and Hove. Perhaps the Labour Party should be offering both an apology and an offer to reimburse Brighton and Hove City Council for this unnecessary cost.

One person who should not apologise is Bella Sankey who was not the Leader of the Labour Group at the time of the selections and the election. She must be so frustrated by this and other decisions made by the regional Labour Party, such as not enabling someone with her qualities to be the Party’s candidate in Brighton Pavilion. 

As for the by-elections themselves, Labour should hold on comfortably to both seats. In Camilla Gauge, who is standing in Queen’s Park ward, Labour has chosen an exceptional candidate who will bring experience and great ability to the Council, not least her expertise in tackling violence against women and girls. As far as I am aware, the Party is yet to select its candidate in Kemptown ward.

The Greens have traditionally had some success in Queen’s Park. How close they come to challenging Labour will provide an indication as to the mountain the party has yet to climb in recovering from its worst election defeat in 20 years in Brighton and Hove.

As for the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, they have about as much chance of winning as a lame and blind donkey would have had winning the Gold Cup at the Cheltenham Festival this last week.

Update: 4.45pm 16/03/2024 Theresa Mackey has been selected as Labour’s candidate for the Kemptown by-election.