Some Immediate Reflections on Election Results in Sussex

Last Thursday’s elections (the results in Brighton and Hove and for the Police and Crime Commissioner were announced in the last two hours) have raised some intriguing considerations for the pending general election. The key points are:

• The re-election of Katy Bourne as the Police and Crime Commissioner
• Labour winning a majority of seats on Adur District Council
• The Greens’ and Independents’ successes in Hastings
• Labour holding both seats in by-elections in Brighton

Katy Bourne (photo credit: Felice Southwell / Brighton and Hove News)

It is the re-election of Katy Bourne that probably has the greatest significance. While some dismiss the election for the PCC as irrelevant and that the low turnout renders the result inconsequential, I think otherwise. This election covered every ward and constituency in Sussex. While the Conservatives currently hold every constituency in Sussex other than the three seats in Brighton And Hove, there are forecasts that they will hold just seven of the 17 seats at the general election with Labour winning seven, the Lib Dem’s two and the Greens holding on to Brighton Pavilion. 

Yet in the largest test of popular opinion, the Conservatives held on to the PCC. I suspect Katy Bourne won because she has done a good job as the PCC and is respected for her record since first being elected. This is as more a personal victory than it is a party one. As a Conservative, her vote plummeted as one would expect. But an unknown candidate might not have won for the Conservatives.

Like Katy, several of the defending Tory MPs will have a personal vote. For example, had Tim Laughton stood again his personal vote could have partially offset the hostility to the Conservatives who have just lost control of Adur District Council to Labour. I suspect, though, that even that would not have saved him.

The PCC election shows that there are still large numbers of Conservative voters across Sussex. The challenge for the Tories is to get them to actually vote, something they are more likely to do in a general election than in a local council or PCC election. That prediction of just seven Conservative MPs in Sussex might be an underestimate.

Quite remarkably, in votes cast in Brighton and Hove in the Police and Crime Commissioner 

Election, the Conservatives came second with 10,308 votes with the Greens third with 9,042 votes. One explanation was that there was tactical voting and some Green supporters lent their votes to Labour. In the general election, the same might happen in Hove & Portslade and in Brighton Kemptown, but in a straight fight between Labour and the Greens in Brighton Pavilion, that won’t happen. Who knows, some Conservatives voters might even vote Green to minimise Labour’s parliamentary majority.

Given the lacklustre campaign being run by Labour in Brighton Pavilion, the Greens and Siân Berry are coasting to a comfortable win. The only thing that might change that is for Labour to replace Tom Gray who appears to be a mere paper candidate.  I would suggest a more viable candidate would be Bella Sankey who understands campaigning and engagement. Now a Berry/Sankey duel would make for a very interesting contest.

In the two by-elections, Labour did well to hang on to both seats given the incompetence of the regional Labour Party in selecting the two candidates for the 2023 elections whose resignations triggered the by-elections. I am sure that Milla Guage and Theresa Mackey will add to the strength of the Labour Group.

Adrian Hart, of the Brighton and Hove Independents did well to increase his share of the vote in Queens Park while Labour and the Greens saw their votes go down in both wards in greater proportions than the lower turnout.

Labour election leaflet in Queens Park calls for ‘virile representation’

Following the resignations of the ‘Leicester Two’ from Brighton and Hove City Council, there are by-elections coming up in the Queens Park and the Kemptown wards.

I was reading a Labour leaflet from Queens Park, most of which I agree with. There was talk of lower rents, improving education, and the lot of people experiencing a cost-of-living crisis (“the lot of the poorer inhabitants” the leaflet said). There was a focus on unemployment, housing schemes, empty homes, and transport.

What struck me most was, according to the leaflet, the need for “representation of a virile type”, not something you read every day in election material.

In case you were wondering, this wasn’t a contemporary election leaflet from Labour’s Camilla Gauge, but one from 1935 when the Labour candidate was Richard Polling. I don’t know whether he was elected on that occasion but he did become a councillor, as did his son-in-law, Stan Fitch, and Stan’s son, the late Brian Fitch. It was Stan who gave me a copy of this leaflet.

Times have changed but the issues raised by Richard Polling – education, housing, rents, nursery education, etc. – remain as relevant today as they were in 1935. But as for ‘virile’ representation and leadership, I doubt it will be a concept that will loom large in Labour’s general election campaign!

South Portslade by-election 2024

Councillor Josh Guilmant

The result in the South Portslade by-election announced this lunchtime (12th January 2024), which saw Labour’ s Josh Guilmant hold this ultra safe seat, was akin to the newspaper headline: ‘Small earthquake, not much damage’. There was some damage to Labour’s pride but that won’t worry them. The party saw its majority halved, from over 1,200 to a little over 600. Its share of the vote reduced marginally from over 60% to 54% but the number of votes it received was down by almost 900. Nevertheless, congratulations to Cllr Guilmant on his election.

But this was just a by-election. Labour had the advantage of a stonking lead in the national opinion polls, but this was offset by the annoyance factor of a recently elected councillor resigning, as well as a big local issue, the proposed closure of a local school.

The Greens made a big noise about the proposed closure of St Peter’s school. For them the result, which saw them remain fourth behind the Conservatives in second and the Lib Dems in third place, demonstrates just how far they need to go to rebuild their lost credibility. This was never going to be the totemic result which they need in order to show that they are on the way back. Even in a more fertile ward for them, they would have struggled.

The Conservatives will be relieved that they clung on to second place, but still a country mile behind Labour. It does not bode well for them in the run up to the general election. With results like this, should the general election be held in the summer, all Peter Kyle needs to do is sit in a deckchair on the Hove lawns while his vote is weighed and he sees a significant increase in his majority.

The votes for the South Portslade by-election were: 

• 874 Labour 874
• Conservative 246
• Lib Dem 186
• Green 149
• TUSC   53
• Democratic Liberation 49
• Independent   44 

Turnout was just 21.6%.

Update 1.26pm 12/01/24: There is an error in the above post. The Greens actually went from third last May to fourth in this by-election. They did not “remain fourth” as I said. Apologies.

By-elections in Brighton and Hove, and the legacy of Garry Peltzer Dunn

There is nothing that political activists enjoy more than a by-election, especially when held in a marginal ward or constituency. The most recent by-election in the city was in Rottingdean Coastal, once the safest of safe Conservative seats, which Labour won for the first-time ever.

Rottingdean Coastal shows that no seat can be regarded as safe for any one party. It is now represented by one Conservative, one Independent and one Labour councillor. It is unfortunate that the Conservative and Labour councillors are indisposed through ill health leaving the Independent, Bridget Fishleigh, as the sole active councillor in the area.

Garry Peltzer Dunn

On December 8, there is a by-election in Wish ward in Hove following the sad passing of one of the nicest and most decent councillors I have ever known, Garry Peltzer Dunn. He had served as a councillor for over 50 years. Following his death there have been countless accounts of small acts of kindness for which he will long be remembered.

One of the characteristics of any election are claims on social media by the activists about how well their campaign is going. You hear the activists say: “A fantastic response on the doorstep tonight” or “Great reception on the phones this evening for our amazing candidate”, even “Out canvassing all day!!! Gr8 response!!!!!” And then most of them lose!

I have only heard one candidate say that he must be the exception, that the response he had received had been terrible! Graham Cox, a former Chief Superintendent of Police, was a candidate in the Westbourne by-election in December 2011. He was honest enough to say that the response he received wasn’t ‘fantastic’ or ‘Gr8’. The reaction he got must have been good enough as he won with a majority of 201.

I stood in a by-election in Regency Ward in 1985. I won by the narrowest of majorities. I could only dream of a 201 majority. At the time the Conservatives had twenty five of the forty eight seats on the council. A defeat would mean that they could continue as the administration only by relying on the casting vote of the Mayor. 

The election was fiercely fought and the count was tense. I had not expected to win and could feel my knees giving way when my agent whispered to me that I had, in fact, beaten the Conservative candidate, John Sheldon, a lovely man who I subsequently got to know and who was taken from us too early. His father was a former Mayor, Danny Sheldon.

The result meant that the Conservatives lost their overall majority and I became the first-ever non-Conservative to be elected at any level of government in that area.  

The thing about by-elections is that there are far more activists available to knock on doors that in normal elections. They came from all over Brighton and from as far off as Hove which, at that time, was a separate town with its own council.

The other side of by-elections, and probably all elections, is that the candidate goes a bit crazy. The tiniest issue gets blown out of all proportions in the mind of the candidate. The candidate wants to spend far too much time in the committee room talking about what is going on and moaning that not enough is being done in this, the first step of their glorious political career!

I was lucky that I had an organiser who made sure I was the first to be sent out to knock on doors and I wasn’t allowed back until everyone else had returned. 

I actually loved the campaigning side of elections, not so much the part when I was elected and, subsequently, re-elected. The life of a local councillor is not a glamorous one. Most work hard for little reward and even less thanks.  They are hampered by years of vicious central government cuts.  

Those in the party that forms the administration, of all persuasions, get over-sensitive about criticism, worse today than in my time when we didn’t have the joys of social media. But criticism comes with the territory because the issues that are dealt with by a local council impact on the everyday life of the community, such as the state of the streets, rubbish collections, graffiti, and the closure of public toilets.

Even though I have, on occasions, been critical of councillors in this column, I do respect their service, commitment and diligence. I would absolutely not want to be a councillor today, a fact that makes me all the more appreciative of those who do put themselves forward for election. They deserve recognition and the gratitude of the community. 

Good luck to all the candidates standing in the Wish by-election on 8th December. And please remember and honour the legacy bequeathed to you by Garry Peltzer Dunn.

(This item first appeared on 16th November 2022 in my ‘Brighton and Beyond’ column in the Brighton Argus)