Some Immediate Reflections on Election Results in Sussex

Last Thursday’s elections (the results in Brighton and Hove and for the Police and Crime Commissioner were announced in the last two hours) have raised some intriguing considerations for the pending general election. The key points are:

• The re-election of Katy Bourne as the Police and Crime Commissioner
• Labour winning a majority of seats on Adur District Council
• The Greens’ and Independents’ successes in Hastings
• Labour holding both seats in by-elections in Brighton

Katy Bourne (photo credit: Felice Southwell / Brighton and Hove News)

It is the re-election of Katy Bourne that probably has the greatest significance. While some dismiss the election for the PCC as irrelevant and that the low turnout renders the result inconsequential, I think otherwise. This election covered every ward and constituency in Sussex. While the Conservatives currently hold every constituency in Sussex other than the three seats in Brighton And Hove, there are forecasts that they will hold just seven of the 17 seats at the general election with Labour winning seven, the Lib Dem’s two and the Greens holding on to Brighton Pavilion. 

Yet in the largest test of popular opinion, the Conservatives held on to the PCC. I suspect Katy Bourne won because she has done a good job as the PCC and is respected for her record since first being elected. This is as more a personal victory than it is a party one. As a Conservative, her vote plummeted as one would expect. But an unknown candidate might not have won for the Conservatives.

Like Katy, several of the defending Tory MPs will have a personal vote. For example, had Tim Laughton stood again his personal vote could have partially offset the hostility to the Conservatives who have just lost control of Adur District Council to Labour. I suspect, though, that even that would not have saved him.

The PCC election shows that there are still large numbers of Conservative voters across Sussex. The challenge for the Tories is to get them to actually vote, something they are more likely to do in a general election than in a local council or PCC election. That prediction of just seven Conservative MPs in Sussex might be an underestimate.

Quite remarkably, in votes cast in Brighton and Hove in the Police and Crime Commissioner 

Election, the Conservatives came second with 10,308 votes with the Greens third with 9,042 votes. One explanation was that there was tactical voting and some Green supporters lent their votes to Labour. In the general election, the same might happen in Hove & Portslade and in Brighton Kemptown, but in a straight fight between Labour and the Greens in Brighton Pavilion, that won’t happen. Who knows, some Conservatives voters might even vote Green to minimise Labour’s parliamentary majority.

Given the lacklustre campaign being run by Labour in Brighton Pavilion, the Greens and Siân Berry are coasting to a comfortable win. The only thing that might change that is for Labour to replace Tom Gray who appears to be a mere paper candidate.  I would suggest a more viable candidate would be Bella Sankey who understands campaigning and engagement. Now a Berry/Sankey duel would make for a very interesting contest.

In the two by-elections, Labour did well to hang on to both seats given the incompetence of the regional Labour Party in selecting the two candidates for the 2023 elections whose resignations triggered the by-elections. I am sure that Milla Guage and Theresa Mackey will add to the strength of the Labour Group.

Adrian Hart, of the Brighton and Hove Independents did well to increase his share of the vote in Queens Park while Labour and the Greens saw their votes go down in both wards in greater proportions than the lower turnout.

Could a vote for ‘Rosie Duffield’ gain a head of steam in Brighton Pavilion?

(This item first appeared in the Brighton Argus on 20th March 2024)

Some people in Brighton Pavilion are considering voting for a surprise, unofficial, candidate. She will not be on the ballot paper, but people have told me that they might write her name at the bottom of the ballot. She is not seeking nomination here and almost certainly will not endorse this move. She might even publicly denounce it. What is more, she will be standing for the Labour Party in the Kent constituency she already represents.

So why are people in Brighton Pavilion considering voting for Rosie Duffield? She won’t be elected here, and any vote for her will be counted as a spoiled ballot and won’t count. ‘Vote Duffield’ was my wife’s proposal. Rosie Duffield is the Labour MP for Canterbury but she was vilified on social media and shunned by Labour’s leadership because of her gender-critical views. She, like many of us, does not believe that anyone can change their sex regardless of how they might choose to live their lives.  

Tom Gray and Siân Berry

I don’t know how many will vote for ‘Rosie Duffield’. It might be just a small handful or it could yet gain a head of steam. Much depends on what the official Labour candidate, Tom Gray, says on the protection of single-sex spaces for those born female, spaces such as hospital wards, changing rooms, toilets, refuges and rape crisis services.

Siân Berry has had a consistent take on this issue. Her view is that transgender women (those born male) should be allowed to use women-only spaces even if they have all their male bits intact (my words, not hers). The Greens have lost support amongst many women and men because they relentlessly prioritise trans rights over women’s sex-based rights, their failure to investigate a Green Party member, the paedophile David Challenor, and their unlawful discrimination against their former deputy leader, Shahrar Ali, who holds gender-critical views. 

Siân has said she will never compromise on trans rights. Tom Gray, on the other hand, seems very reluctant to say what he believes or if he believes anything at all!  He has been challenged on social media to say where he stands, and some constituents have written to him on the issue. I have been told that he has not replied. 

In my first column this year, I wrote about the potential for this to be an election issue in Brighton Pavilion: “Tom will need to say where he stands. The trans rights lobby, including those in his own party, is very vociferous, especially on social media, but they are not significant electorally.” I pointed out that Labour has shifted from its previous support for self-identification which would have allowed people to legally change gender without a medical diagnosis and has, instead, recommitted itself to ensuring that some single-sex services and places should be accessed by biological women only. 

I have written to Tom asking for his views on this matter but was referred to the regional press office. I wrote to the named press officer, several times over a few weeks, but have had no response. Are they still captured by the trans-rights activists? Why are they unwilling to repeat the party’s new policy? So I wrote again to Tom, as have others who have contacted me. Tom has not replied to them either. If I was still a Labour member in Brighton Pavilion (I resigned my party membership back in 1994) I would be thoroughly disappointed and disillusioned by Tom’s non-campaign.

Why can’t Tom say that he supports the policy of his Party (even if his leader, Sir Keir Starmer can’t quite bring himself to say “sex-based rights”, preferring to refer to “safe spaces”)? Perhaps he feels that he cannot go against those vociferous activists who hold a different view to the party’s policy, as does the MP for Brighton Kemptown, Lloyd Russell-Moyle. If Tom is running scared of his own Party members, what will he be like when faced with more formidable opponents and vested interests when he is an MP?

A recent opinion poll put Siân Berry at almost 50% with Tom Gray at 37%. He needs something to ignite his rather odd and lacklustre campaign. If he could harness the ‘gender critical’ vote, then the result could be closer than it is currently likely to be. But for now, imagine the scene at the election count as Siân narrowly wins the seat, aided by outraged ‘Duffield’ votes that could otherwise have gone to Labour. It would be too late for regrets.

Labour seems to have given up on winning Brighton Pavilion

(This item first appeared in the Brighton Argus on 6th March 2024)

Over the last 45 years I have closely observed and, on occasions, participated in eleven general election campaigns in Brighton Pavilion. Yet never before has there been such an odd campaign as that being run by the Labour Party. The party is giving every impression that it doesn’t want to win!

The constituency had become a safe seat for the Green Party because of the huge personal vote built by Caroline Lucas. But her decision to stand down at the election opens up a once-in-a-generation opportunity for Labour. Not only has the Green Party suffered its worst local election defeat in fifteen years, in Siân Berry it has selected a candidate previously unknown in Brighton. Ms Berry is hedging her bets by standing, once again, for a seat on the Greater London Assembly. 

I had previously forecast a Labour gain in Brighton Pavilion at the general election, but three things have made me rethink this. The first is the energetic and high-profile campaign being run by Siân Berry backed by Caroline Lucas. The second is the inexplicable decision of Labour to delay its selection until mid December, thereby giving Siân a free run for five months. Then thirdly, the launch of the Labour campaign was delayed, for good reasons, until February, thereby extending the Green’s unopposed run for a further two months.

The latest prediction from Electoral Calculus, which analyses recent opinion polls, forecasts a Green win with Siân Berry securing almost 50% of the vote to Tom Gray’s 36%.

There is a further reason why I think Tom Gray will lose. Now that the Labour campaign has been launched, what a strange campaign it is providing to be. There was a well-supported launch event when Labour activists from all over came to support Tom Gray and to knock on doors. At the time of writing, there have been just a few other campaign events, one which Tom apologised for missing as he was at a conference in London, and another the weekend before last. I am assured by Labour Party members that he is out campaigning several times a week. 

But where is the momentum for his campaign? Siân Berry is forever appearing on social media, at events, and in The Argus. We have received several leaflets and reports from her, and she is popping up all over the place. I’ve bumped into her in the street, at a vigil, on the bus, and in a local cafe. By contrast, we have received just one leaflet from Tom Gray saying he was sorry to have missed us when he called (although it wasn’t he who did call).

Unlike Siân, Tom’s supporters say he is not a professional politician and that he works full time running a national organisation. I had hoped to meet with Tom, as I have with Siân and other parliamentary candidates but, in spite of several requests, his diary hasn’t permitted it. I had hoped to get a better understanding of Tom himself, how his campaign is going, and his views on some key issues. In the absence of a meeting, I sent him some questions about policy and his campaign. The reply from ‘Team Tom’ did not answer any of my questions but hoped that “you and he can find time for a chat soon”. 

Tom Gray (right) with Cllr David McGregor and Lloyd Russell-Moyle at the British Kebab Awards (photo: David McGregor / X formerly Twitter)

I was told that he is spending his evenings and weekends canvassing constituents. However, he had time to attend the British Kebab Awards in London. Meanwhile there are complaints from constituents who have not had responses from Tom, such as Siân Rees who said on Twitter that Tom should “answer queries from his future constituents … Still trying, 30+ messages in, no luck so far.” So it’s not just me!

I tried getting a response from the regional Labour Party to one of my questions. In spite of a chaser email, I heard nothing other than an acknowledgement that my email had been received.

One has to ask, therefore, whether Labour, and Tom for that matter, are really committed to running a winning campaign in Brighton Pavilion. From my experience of elections, Labour looks perilously close to having given up on their best chance of winning the seat in over a decade.  The only explanation for the poor campaign is that Tom Gray and his backers believe that while flying under the radar that they will be swept to victory in a Labour landslide. If that is their strategy, they will be handing the seat to Siân Berry and the Greens for the next fifteen years.  Tom Gray and the constituency Labour Party must really up their game.

Let hostilities commence in Brighton Pavilion

At long last, several months after the Green’s Siân Berry launched her energetic and high-profile campaign, the Labour campaign in Brighton Pavilion has got into gear. Tom Gray’s election campaign was formally launched on Saturday morning and the streets of some central wards were awash with door knockers who had gathered from all over the south east. The Conservative campaign with the unrelentingly optimistic Khobi Vallis in Brighton Kemptown took to Woodingdean while the sitting Labour MP, Lloyd Russell-Moyle, was off campaigning in Brighton Pavilion.

Labour campaigned strongly in the two Worthing seats and in Hastings.

In Brighton Pavilion Labour campaigners came up against two negative main issues on the doorstep. The first was Labour’s most recent U-turn on its £28 billion pledge to tackle the climate crisis. This plays right into the hands of Siân Berry, and in an ultra marginal seat like Pavilion, this will be one of several factors that could decide the outcome. 

The second issue was Gaza, a concern I heard dismissed by a Londoner out on behalf of Tom Gray. She said that it is just a few middle class people who are concerned about this. Hmmm?  Loyalty to Labour’s spineless leader, Sir Keir Starmer, is one thing. Total denial is another. Labour is already taking private polling on this issue, such is the concern by national campaign managers that Starmer’s unconditional backing of Israel will harm the election campaign.

What I thought was most unfortunate in Tom Gray’s ‘Sorry I missed you’ leaflet was this statement: “We have a Green MP, but it hasn’t stopped Rishi Sunak digging oil wells or sewage pouring into our sea. Only a Labour government can do that.”  Yes, there is a solitary Green MP . But there are over 200 Labour MPs and that hasn’t stopped “Rishi Sunak digging oil wells or sewage pouring into our sea.” It could be said that Labour is over 200 times more culpable than Caroline Lucas for this failure. 

Feargal Sharkey with Green Party Peer, Baroness Jenny Jones of Moulsecoomb

Such campaigning rhetoric, Tom, does not cast you in a good light. I am not sure that Feargal Sharkey, who helped launch your campaign on Saturday, would endorse such an anti-Green sentiment as he is prepared to work across the political divide on clean water issues, including with the Green Party.  I imagine that particular line was fed to you by some faceless regional communication officer. My advice to you, Tom, is aim high in your campaign and don’t become the puppet of Labour’s regional office.  Nonsense such as blaming Caroline Lucas for single-handedly failing to stop the Conservatives from polluting the environment simply makes your campaign look stupid.

Will a Labour government stop the water companies polluting our sea and rivers? I hope, if elected, that it will. But if there is any cost to the Exchequer, Chancellor Rachel Reeves might have something else to say about this.

Update 12/02/2024 11.08am: Siân Berry held a rally at the weekend as well as door knocking as part of her campaign. She said at the rally: ““The people of Brighton Pavilion deserve a strong voice in Parliament, unafraid and unwhipped. If I’m elected to continue in Caroline Lucas’ footsteps I will be fearless in advocating for the things that matter to people”.

Note 13/02/2024 8.35am: The original version of this post had a scurrilous reference to Helena Dollimore, Labour’s candidate in Hastings and Rye. This has now been moved to a post of its own.

 

 

It’s Gomez Gray against Smokin’ Siân for the undisputed heavyweight title of Brighton Pavilion

(This item first appeared in the Brighton Argus on 3rd January 2024)

Ladies and Gentlemen, the main contest on this election card is the head-to-head fight for the undisputed heavyweight championship of Brighton Pavilion. In the red corner is Tom ‘Gomez’ Gray fighting out of Brighton via Liverpool. In the green corner, ‘Smokin’ Siân Berry from Camden in old London Town.

The battle lines are drawn for the campaign to succeed Caroline Lucas as the Member of Parliament for Brighton Pavilion. This will be a tough contest to call. Neither is likely to strike a knockout blow and it could come down to a split decision on points or, at least, a handful of votes.

The electoral tide is with Labour. When Caroline was first elected in 2010, Labour was way down in the polls, and the big ‘M’ – momentum (not the left wing organisation) – was with the Greens who were poised to seize control of the City Council the following year. The situation is now reversed. Labour enjoys a healthy national lead in the polls, notwithstanding the tepid Sir Keir Starmer. The Greens locally are now in the Doldrums having been humiliated in May’s elections to Brighton and Hove City Council while Labour had its best result ever.

Siân and Tom have different problems when it comes to commitments they might wish to make to the electorate. Tom can’t promise anything meaningful without incurring the wrath of Rachel Reeves if there is any cost attached. Meanwhile Siân has the opposite problem. Any promises she makes will be meaningless because, even if elected, she will never be in a position to deliver on any of them.

Labour should not take this as a reason to discourage people from voting Green. Caroline Lucas has shown that a lone Green MP can effectively shine a light on issues. Not so for yet another Labour backbencher who will be lost in the crowd, especially a backbencher in a party likely to have a stonking great majority.  Hundreds of under-employed backbenchers will wish to be seen by the Whips as being on best behaviour in order to secure promotion to the lowest bag-carrying position. 

Tom will face tricky questions over local issues, such as the proposed closure of St Bartholomew’s school in the constituency. Can he criticise, even campaign against, the Labour administration that is currently consulting on the closure? Siân will have no such difficulty and is already taking a stand on issues for which she will never be responsible. Caroline used to distance herself from the Green administration so much so that people used to say that they would never vote Green again but had no hesitation in saying that they would vote for her.

There is one specific issues that Tom will need to clarify: his views on women’s sex-based rights. Labour dodged a bullet by rejecting Eddie Izzard as its candidate. Not only does Eddie not support single-sex spaces for women, he actually intrudes on them on a regular basis. Tom will need to say where he stands. The trans rights lobby, including in his own party, is very vociferous, especially on social media, but they are not significant electorally.

All current Labour MPs were elected on the following manifesto commitment: “Ensure that the single-sex-based exemptions contained in the Equality Act 2010 are understood and fully enforced in service provision.” Last summer the Labour Party shifted from its previous support for self-identification which would have allowed people to legally change gender without a medical diagnosis. The party has also recommitted itself to ensuring that some single-sex services and places should be accessed only by biological women.

The Greens have lost support amongst many women and men because of their uncompromising policies on trans rights over women’s sex-based rights. Siân has made this a major part of her pitch saying she will never compromise on this. She even stood down as party leader because of a slight adjustment in the Green Party policy. Siân should expect questions on her position on women’s sex-based rights and, if she stands by her long-standing position, she can expect to lose support. There is also an employment tribunal discrimination case being brought against the Green Party by Shahrar Ali who was dismissed from his role as party spokesperson because of his support for women’s sex-based rights. This case might yet reflect negatively on Siân.  

Notwithstanding the above, in Tom and Siân we have two very engaging, strong candidates who will provide us voters in Brighton Pavilion with a pleasant dilemma as to whom we want as our next MP. Support for women’s sex-based rights might just prove decisive in a close contest.

Rishi Sunak: an empty shell in an expensive suit. My review of the year.

(This item first appeared in the Brighton Argus on 27th December 2023)

As we approach the new year, many will reflect on the last twelve months.  Who would have thought that we would have witnessed the near terminal implosion of the Conservative Party? Even in the last three weeks, the party has further torn itself apart over one of its flagship policies – immigration and the ill-conceived Rwanda initiative. Rishi Sunak looks increasingly forlorn and tetchy,  . He can’t please the left or right in his own party. What hope has he of convincing the country that they can trust the Conservatives?

The May local elections in Brighton and Hove saw the humiliation of the Green Party, seeing the number of its councillors slump from 21 to just seven, a result even worse than the eleven I had forecast, a forecast that had attracted scorn from several Greens. The Conservatives fared slightly worse, ending up with an historic low of just six seats. In the case of the Conservatives, the blame for their performance was down entirely to their national leadership, while the Greens locally were the architects of their own misfortune. They were poor communicators, poor administrators, and exceptionally poor politicians.

The Brighton and Hove Labour Party had its most successful election ever, winning 38 seats. But the wheels have begun to come off. Within six months, two of their councillors had been expelled from the Party following allegations that they might actually live in Leicester; another has been removed from committees and representing the Council because of a rather innocuous, dated tweet that has been interpreted as transphobic and for which she, regrettably, apologised; and a fourth has resigned just six months after being elected.  One must wonder about the competence of the Party that failed to do basic due diligence before imposing three of these candidates on its members and on the electorate.

Internationally, the war in Ukraine rumbles on without any sign of a solution. That conflict has been overshadowed by the appalling terrorist attack in southern Israel on 7th October that sickened all reasonable, decent people. The physical and sexual violence on that day should have been condemned without reservation and should continue to be condemned.  What followed has seen an unacceptable loss of life amongst thousands of the civilian population of Gaza.  The humanitarian disaster we are witnessing in Gaza should also be condemned by all reasonable, decent people. One horrific war crime does not justify another, nor should any of it justify the increase in anti-semitism in the U.K.

On a personal level, after 41 years working in the housing and social care sector, 37 of these with the wonderful charity BHT Sussex and 20 years as its chief executive, I retired. I was given a wonderful send off and humbled to be awarded an Honorary Doctorate by the University of Sussex. In retirement I have been freed from the daily stress of leading a large organisation with over 300 employees that works with 10,000 people annually. Gone, too, are the out-of-hours crisis phone calls. Gone is the accountability to a Board, a regular source of stress for many chief executives. Gone, too, sadly, is the monthly salary!

All that has been replaced by a different pace of life, one that has allowed time for reading, thinking, writing and walking Molly the Dog. My wife cannot believe that there is so much cricket, rugby and football that demands to be watched, the highlight for this South African being the Springboks winning the Rugby World Cup for a record fourth time.

So what comes next?  The English men are unlikely to match the success of the Lionesses in the Euros. Will there be much for Brits to celebrate at the Paris Olympics, and will Britain once again score nul point in Eurovision? There is likely to be a general election in 2024 and only a fool would bet against a thumping Labour majority. But how long will it take before the gloss comes off the Labour government as it adheres to Conservative spending plans while not growing the economy at a rate necessary to meet the hopes and aspirations of the electorate?

Will the Conservative Party exist this time next year, or will it have become the two parties that seem determined to emerge? Will the Greens retain Brighton Pavilion? It’s all to play for, in my opinion, as the Londoner Siân Berry is up against the local Tom Gray. For those of us who love elections, this is likely to be a bumper year, and I for one cannot wait for hostilities to commence!

Eddie Izzard’s Political Obituary

Congratulations to Tom Gray on his selection as the Labour candidate for Brighton Pavilion. The contest between him and Siân Berry will be fascinating, and I will write about this in more detail at a later date. For now I wish to focus on the political obituary of Eddie Izzard.

Eddie Izzard (photo credit Brighton Argus / Andrew Gardner)

There are a number of points worth  noting, the first being the ludicrous decision of the Labour Party to shortlist him. As I have said before, like Siân Berry, Izzard is not local which, if selected, would have denied Labour a critical advantage over the greens. And given he will be spending the first part of 2024 in New York, he would not have had time to establish himself locally as Siân Berry has done. 

But his performance in the selection campaign has been woeful, as is his grasp of policy issues. Rachel Cashman, one of those who attended the hustings meeting this afternoon, said on : “… history revisionism and ‘trans candidate’ aside, I was struck by just how poor, unfocused, incoherent, lacking in policy or position, local knowledge & unable to answer questions Izzard was.”

Over the last few weeks Izzard raised a number of issues that he said he wished to prioritise. Amongst these, he said he would “fight to keep our schools open”, increase “good, green jobs of the future here in Brighton”, “enhance Brighton’s cultural offering”, “bring global investment to the city”, “work with the police to bring community policing onto the streets of Brighton Pavilion”, “champion the arts and ensure creativity is always celebrated”, and “… make Brighton Pavilion a model for sustainable urban living”. 

All the above would be great but an MP has little practical influence over any of the above. Perhaps he should have put himself forward as a candidate for the by-election in South Portslade given that the arts, economic development, community policing in a locality are influenced more by local councillors than by a Member of Parliament. How could Eddie Izzard be so lacking in understanding about Parliament and local councils? Why was he not vetted properly by the Labour Party before allowing him to make an utter fool of himself?

He said that because of his profile as a comedian, he was “excited to elevate Brighton Pavilion’s profile”. Forgive me for being a cynic but I suspect that the profile of this city is far greater than that of a has been comedian.

But most of all, there was something about Eddie Izzard that many, many people in Brighton and Hove would find unacceptable. I’m not judgemental and not prejudicial, but some things are just not acceptable to any reasonably-minded Brightonian. Eddie Izzard is a Crystal Palace supporter.

I suspect that this is it for Eddie Izzard’s aspirations to become a Member of Parliament. Given that he has said that “fighting for Brighton in Parliament would be the culmination of a lifelong journey” and that “every step I’ve taken has led me here”, how can he possibly assert a commitment to any other town or city foolish enough to consider him as a candidate.

Councillors in Brighton and Hove are to consider whether Preston Park should be given over to Brighton Pride for two weekends

In August I asked in my weekly Argus column whether we should call time on Brighton Pride. The weekend has moved so far away from the original Lesbian and Gay Pride, even dropping the words ‘Lesbian’ and ‘Gay’ from its title. Some people have suggested the weekend has become little more than an opportunity for straight people to party under a Rainbow Flag.

Brighton Pride 2019

Of course, for many people, it is a lot more than that. It provides some people with the opportunity, sometimes for the first time, to express their sexuality in public and to March alongside other lesbian women and gay men. This is an important part of the Pride experience. 

But the ‘Pride Party’ in Preston Park has moved a million miles away from that. And for people living around Preston Park, and in 21 streets in and around St James’s Street, Pride weekend can be a nightmare. It is not just the three days of Pride weekend itself, and in the case of Preston Park, it is a total of ten or eleven days as the park is closed for recreation and dog walking.

If that wasn’t bad enough, there is a proposal going before councillors this Friday seeking approval to extend the festivities over two weekends, meaning that Preston Park will be out of bounds for almost three weeks. Organisers are hoping to spread their costs by hosting standalone events, not be part of the Pride itself, over the first weekend.

This is unacceptable and councillors for Preston Park ward and those representing surrounding areas must step in on behalf of their residents to limit the disruption and inconvenience that this would cause their constituents.

I would like to hear from those wishing to become the next MP for Brighton Pavilion (Siân Berry, Eddie Izzard, Tom Gray, Birgit Miller, Lucy Helliwell, and Ashley Ridley) whether they  support the closure of the park for commercial reasons at the expense of local people’s access to this green open space that is loved and used by thousands of people every day.

And what will local councillors do to protect this amenity for their constituents?

The councillors for Preston Park Ward are: Steve Davis (Green), Liz Loughran (Labour), and Kerry Pickett (Green).

The councillors for neighbouring wards are:

• Roundhill: Raphael Hill and Pete West (both Green)
• West Hill and North Laine: Ellen McLeay and Sue Shanks (both Green)
• Westdene and Hove Park: Samer Bagaeen, Emma Hogan and Ivan Lyon’s (all Conservative)

Labour’s Selection in Brighton Pavilion: Having Eddie Izzard on the shortlist is an absolute joke

I have previously commented on the incomprehensible decision of the Labour Party to have delayed the selection of its candidate for Brighton Pavilion until now. The Greens were quick off the mark selecting Siân Berry. She has hardly missed a beat as she establishes herself locally, and is being seen out and about throughout the constituency. As a Londoner with no previous links to Brighton, she has been learning the geography of the place and must have, by now, learned that the No 50 bus serves Hollingdean.

Conversely, Labour has just announced its shortlist of candidates to become its parliamentary candidate.

I am very sorry that, Bella Sankey has decided not to put herself forward (there are some suggestions that she was not shortlisted but I doubt that even the Labour Party would be that stupid).

Eddie Izzard (photo credit Brighton Argus / Andrew Gardner)

The Argus has reported that it understands four candidates are in the running to be the Labour candidate for Brighton Pavilion: comedian and actor Eddie Izzard, music industry activist and Pavilion resident Tom Gray, Goldsmid councillor Birgit Miller, and North Portslade councillor for Lucy Helliwell. Three of these, Eddie, Tom and Birgit have confirmed this on social media.

I am amazed that Eddie Izzard has been shortlisted. If Izzard is chosen as the candidate, Labour will lose an advantage it has over Siân Berry – that she is an outsider being parachuted into the constituency. While Siân, as I have said above, is getting stuck into her long campaign, Izzard plans to be in New York between January and March performing Hamlet at the Greenwich House Theatre. What a sense of entitlement: I want to be the candidate but don’t let it interfere with my wonderful acting career. Is this the level of commitment Brighton Pavilion can expect from Eddie Izzard the MP? What a joke, Labour. Get your act together.

Finally, the Lib Dem’s have selected Ashley Ridley, a football coach and youth worker, who is hoping to ‘flip’ the seat to the Lib Dem’s, a prospect about as likely as Nick Clegg keeping to his campaign pledge in 2010 to abolish student fees. Memories of this utter betrayal run deep.

Has Labour sabotaged its own campaigns in Brighton Pavilion and in East Worthing & Shoreham?

(This item first appeared in the Brighton Argus on 15th November 2023)

Following the King’s Speech, there is speculation now as to when the general election will be called. Three dates have been suggested: May, the early autumn, or December 2024. The election must be held by January 2025.

My guess is that Rishi Sunak will go for late September or early October. An April poll would be too early for any Budget giveaway to have any effect. December would mean very dark evenings, although a low turnout might benefit the Conservatives. The reason I believe it will be September or October is because any tax cut or give-away bonanza in the spring Budget will have had time to settle in.  However, any such election gimmick will probably be too little and too late for this walking-dead Conservative government.

In Brighton and Hove, the early autumn date would mean that students will not have returned in time to register to vote, something that would seriously disadvantage the Greens in Brighton Pavilion who rely on a large student turnout.

Previously, I have forecast that Labour would win seven seats in Sussex (including taking Brighton Pavilion from the Greens). I have predicted the same number of seats for the Conservatives with the Liberal Democrats winning two. This forecast is now being compromised by the inexplicable actions of the Labour Party which appears to be doing its utmost not to win in East Worthing and Shoreham, and in Brighton Pavilion.

In the Worthing seat, not a single local candidate has been shortlisted. The party has denied party members the options of selecting as their candidate either of two respected Labour councillors, Cat Arnold and Carl Walker, such a shortsighted decision. Labour has performed phenomenally well to gain control of the Borough Council, yet the party seems not to want to build on its success in this constituency. Meanwhile, in Worthing West, the Labour leader of the council, Dr Becky Cooper, has been shortlisted. The party would be foolish not to select her as its candidate as she stands far-and-away the best chance of being elected.

Labour has never won either Worthing seat but the migration of families from Brighton has changed the demographics, just as happened previously in Hove and Portslade, once the safest-of-safe Conservative seats, now solidly Labour.

The Green Party’s Siân Berry who has hit the ground running in Brighton Pavilion

Meanwhile, in Brighton Pavilion, the Greens selected Siân Berry several months ago. She has hit the ground running and her name recognition is increasing. Labour, on the other hand, is dragging its feet. Originally the selection was due to take place in September. Two contenders, Eddie Izzard and Tom Gray, have already announced that they are seeking the nomination. Even if the selection was to take place now, the problem for Labour is it would run into the Christmas period and its candidate, whoever that might be, will have lost three months of invaluable campaigning time. Instead, they will have to wait until the new year, in the depths of winter, before launching their campaign. This would be less of a problem if the election is in September or October but might prove to be a fatal error if Sunak goes for May 2nd or 9th.

There is still no word from the leader of the Council, Bella Sankey: will she be seeking the nomination? The timing of the decision by Caroline Lucas to stand down has not helped Bella. As a relatively new councillor, and having been leader for just over six months, it might appear that Bella is being opportunist by becoming the candidate and subsequently MP, jumping from one opportunity to the next to get into Parliament. 

But if she doesn’t put herself forward now, which would be a shame, the opportunity to become an MP in the City she loves will have passed. By 2029, whoever is elected in 2024, be it Siân Berry or one of the other less-than-convincing Labour contenders, will have established themselves as the sitting MP and they will be hard, if not impossible, to shift. By 2029, Bella won’t be the exciting new kid on the block but she will be burdened by the failings of her administration, a fate that inevitably befalls every leader of the Council.

And by 2029, Labour will not be enjoying the bumper lead it currently has in the polls, thanks to the ever-increasing shambles of a government being led by Rishi Sunak. Rather, a sense of sheer disappointment and bewildered incomprehension will have set in as the Starmer government fails to provide the improvements and the housing that the country needs, unlike the Blair government which on the domestic front in 1997 things really did get better.