Shrinkflation: chocolate bars, my waist, and political spokespeople

At Easter there were a number of stories about the ever-reducing size of chocolate eggs being sold for the same price as their previously larger versions. Apparently most chocolate bars are getting smaller, as are the size of other everyday items we might buy. The price might not be going up but you are getting less for your money. This is known as ‘shrinkflation’.

I have my own personal experience of shrinkflation: I was alarmed to be told at a recent medical appointment that I am no longer 6’6”, but a mere 6’5”. So you are now getting less of me for the same price! Not all shrinkflation is bad. I went from 20 stone in weight to 16 stone following a radical change in my diet when I was diagnosed as being Type 2 diabetic. Cutting out daily double packs of custard creams, donuts, large packs of Doritos Chilli Heatwave, six bananas a day, and much more may have had something to do with that rapid weight loss. (It might also have had just a little to do with me becoming diabetic in the first place …).

There is shrinkflation amongst our political classes, too. Whereas in the past a government had bid names and big hitters in its ministerial ranks, this has now shrunk to a presidential style of politics, with the Cabinet, that once replace the party, has now been replaced by the all-seeing wisdom of the Leader. I shout at the television or radio when allegedly bright party spokespeople preface their answers with: “Rishi has said that …” or “Keir has made it clear that …”.  At least the Liberal Democrats don’t do this. After all, who would want to repeat anything that Ed Davey has to say! As the Beloved Leader of North Korea was saying just the other day: “Always look on the bright side of life”. 

I’ve written more about party spokespeople in my column for next Wednesday’s Argus saying that it seems as though the Labour Party has a policy of fielding the most boring, uninspiring people to do the morning shows. In the past Labour politicians said things that would be remembered. Now they say things that can’t be recalled 10 seconds after it has come out of their mouths. Does Labour have a cunning plan to bore the electorate into submission, hoping that we will zone out before we realise that the party stands for little these days and has very little to say?

Any politicians who says “There is no magic money tree” is treating the electorate as children and idiots. And now Rachel Reeves is acting like a latterday snake oil saleswoman.

(This item first appeared in the Brighton Argus on 3rd April 2024)

Whenever politicians say “There is no magic money tree”, they are treating the electorate as children and idiots. And all who use this pathetic, empty phrase should forfeit the right to be regarded as serious politicians because it closes down legitimate debate on their political priorities.

The politician who most famously used the phrase was Theresa May in 2017 when attacking Jeremy Corbyn. It has subsequently been used by Rishi Sunak and, most recently, by Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner. Labour is also prone to say that the Conservatives have “maxed out the government’s credit card”, an equally stupid concept. The government does not have a credit card and government finances are not the same as those of a household, itself another simplistic and wrong concept favoured by politicians. Proof of this is that there is always money to fight wars.

The household comparison dates back to Margaret Thatcher who, as far back as the 1979 general election campaign, said: “Any woman who understands the problems of running a home will be nearer to understanding the problems of running a country”. Running a home and running the country are not the same, but what an inspired election slogan! 

There is nothing wrong with a country borrowing for investment, even at times of financial instability. What is not right is to borrow to fund tax cuts or day-to-day spending, at least in the long term. I can think of many occasions when nations, in the wake of economic turmoil, have borrowed to fund huge public investment.  One example, in the wake of the 1929 financial crash, was President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s ‘New Deal’ that promoted economic recovery and put Americans back to work through Federal activism. New Federal agencies controlled agricultural production, stabilised wages and prices, and created a vast public works programme for unemployed people. 

The post-war Labour government, at a time of huge debt, made massive investment in creating the NHS, expansion of state education, the building of council housing, and so on. There was a bipartisan approach, not least in housing. During the 1950s, Churchill’s Conservative government delivered new council housing at a rate not seen before or since. Investment in public housing through subsidising the cost of building new homes pays for itself over the years, with lower rents and less public subsidy to help people meet overblown rents. The economics of investment in housing is actually very simple. Investment in bricks and mortar retains value, whereas rent subsidies do not. This bipartisan approach was broken by Margaret Thatcher who began the dismantling of the social housing sector through the politically popular but economically disastrous Right to Buy programme. 

A new bipartisan consensus in favour of financial austerity has been created following the election of the Cameron government in 2010, and Labour front benchers have meekly performed lemming impersonations by following the Conservatives (and until 2015, the Lib Dems) over the austerity cliff. Historians will look back at this era with astonishment – that the major parties were so economically short-sighted and inept that the wellbeing of the nation was sacrificed in the pursuit of power.

If, as expected, Labour forms the next government, it will have voluntarily tied its own hands by adopting Conservatives financial rules. Labour supporters are not enthused by the wooden and lacklustre Sir Keir Starmer – “Sir Crasharooney Snoozefest, the Human Bollard” as Boris Johnson called him. They are destined to be as disappointed by the failure of Labour in government as they have been appalled by the Conservative’s demolition derby antics. 

Following the 2007-08 global financial crisis, the country needed investment but got austerity. When the country needed “strong and stable Leadership” as promised by Theresa May, we had a succession of circus clowns prime ministers unable and unwilling to invest in public services or to control the privatised monopolies. Successive Conservatives promised growth but had absolutely no idea how to achieve it. Now Rachel Reeves, acting like a latterday snake oil saleswoman, promises growth but rules out investment (not least in housing), promoting a valueless and fraudulent remedy that is destined to fail.

Labour will win the forthcoming general election, not because the electorate has any high hopes that “things can only get better” (to quote the 1997 Blairite strap line) but because voters are sick to the back teeth of the chaos of Conservative ‘rule’. And when Labour inevitably fails in government, it will be responsible for a massive swing to the right, by-passing a Conservative Party in mortal decline, to Reform UK and, even more worryingly, to parties on the extreme right.

Let hostilities commence in Brighton Pavilion

At long last, several months after the Green’s Siân Berry launched her energetic and high-profile campaign, the Labour campaign in Brighton Pavilion has got into gear. Tom Gray’s election campaign was formally launched on Saturday morning and the streets of some central wards were awash with door knockers who had gathered from all over the south east. The Conservative campaign with the unrelentingly optimistic Khobi Vallis in Brighton Kemptown took to Woodingdean while the sitting Labour MP, Lloyd Russell-Moyle, was off campaigning in Brighton Pavilion.

Labour campaigned strongly in the two Worthing seats and in Hastings.

In Brighton Pavilion Labour campaigners came up against two negative main issues on the doorstep. The first was Labour’s most recent U-turn on its £28 billion pledge to tackle the climate crisis. This plays right into the hands of Siân Berry, and in an ultra marginal seat like Pavilion, this will be one of several factors that could decide the outcome. 

The second issue was Gaza, a concern I heard dismissed by a Londoner out on behalf of Tom Gray. She said that it is just a few middle class people who are concerned about this. Hmmm?  Loyalty to Labour’s spineless leader, Sir Keir Starmer, is one thing. Total denial is another. Labour is already taking private polling on this issue, such is the concern by national campaign managers that Starmer’s unconditional backing of Israel will harm the election campaign.

What I thought was most unfortunate in Tom Gray’s ‘Sorry I missed you’ leaflet was this statement: “We have a Green MP, but it hasn’t stopped Rishi Sunak digging oil wells or sewage pouring into our sea. Only a Labour government can do that.”  Yes, there is a solitary Green MP . But there are over 200 Labour MPs and that hasn’t stopped “Rishi Sunak digging oil wells or sewage pouring into our sea.” It could be said that Labour is over 200 times more culpable than Caroline Lucas for this failure. 

Feargal Sharkey with Green Party Peer, Baroness Jenny Jones of Moulsecoomb

Such campaigning rhetoric, Tom, does not cast you in a good light. I am not sure that Feargal Sharkey, who helped launch your campaign on Saturday, would endorse such an anti-Green sentiment as he is prepared to work across the political divide on clean water issues, including with the Green Party.  I imagine that particular line was fed to you by some faceless regional communication officer. My advice to you, Tom, is aim high in your campaign and don’t become the puppet of Labour’s regional office.  Nonsense such as blaming Caroline Lucas for single-handedly failing to stop the Conservatives from polluting the environment simply makes your campaign look stupid.

Will a Labour government stop the water companies polluting our sea and rivers? I hope, if elected, that it will. But if there is any cost to the Exchequer, Chancellor Rachel Reeves might have something else to say about this.

Update 12/02/2024 11.08am: Siân Berry held a rally at the weekend as well as door knocking as part of her campaign. She said at the rally: ““The people of Brighton Pavilion deserve a strong voice in Parliament, unafraid and unwhipped. If I’m elected to continue in Caroline Lucas’ footsteps I will be fearless in advocating for the things that matter to people”.

Note 13/02/2024 8.35am: The original version of this post had a scurrilous reference to Helena Dollimore, Labour’s candidate in Hastings and Rye. This has now been moved to a post of its own.

 

 

Rishi Sunak: an empty shell in an expensive suit. My review of the year.

(This item first appeared in the Brighton Argus on 27th December 2023)

As we approach the new year, many will reflect on the last twelve months.  Who would have thought that we would have witnessed the near terminal implosion of the Conservative Party? Even in the last three weeks, the party has further torn itself apart over one of its flagship policies – immigration and the ill-conceived Rwanda initiative. Rishi Sunak looks increasingly forlorn and tetchy,  . He can’t please the left or right in his own party. What hope has he of convincing the country that they can trust the Conservatives?

The May local elections in Brighton and Hove saw the humiliation of the Green Party, seeing the number of its councillors slump from 21 to just seven, a result even worse than the eleven I had forecast, a forecast that had attracted scorn from several Greens. The Conservatives fared slightly worse, ending up with an historic low of just six seats. In the case of the Conservatives, the blame for their performance was down entirely to their national leadership, while the Greens locally were the architects of their own misfortune. They were poor communicators, poor administrators, and exceptionally poor politicians.

The Brighton and Hove Labour Party had its most successful election ever, winning 38 seats. But the wheels have begun to come off. Within six months, two of their councillors had been expelled from the Party following allegations that they might actually live in Leicester; another has been removed from committees and representing the Council because of a rather innocuous, dated tweet that has been interpreted as transphobic and for which she, regrettably, apologised; and a fourth has resigned just six months after being elected.  One must wonder about the competence of the Party that failed to do basic due diligence before imposing three of these candidates on its members and on the electorate.

Internationally, the war in Ukraine rumbles on without any sign of a solution. That conflict has been overshadowed by the appalling terrorist attack in southern Israel on 7th October that sickened all reasonable, decent people. The physical and sexual violence on that day should have been condemned without reservation and should continue to be condemned.  What followed has seen an unacceptable loss of life amongst thousands of the civilian population of Gaza.  The humanitarian disaster we are witnessing in Gaza should also be condemned by all reasonable, decent people. One horrific war crime does not justify another, nor should any of it justify the increase in anti-semitism in the U.K.

On a personal level, after 41 years working in the housing and social care sector, 37 of these with the wonderful charity BHT Sussex and 20 years as its chief executive, I retired. I was given a wonderful send off and humbled to be awarded an Honorary Doctorate by the University of Sussex. In retirement I have been freed from the daily stress of leading a large organisation with over 300 employees that works with 10,000 people annually. Gone, too, are the out-of-hours crisis phone calls. Gone is the accountability to a Board, a regular source of stress for many chief executives. Gone, too, sadly, is the monthly salary!

All that has been replaced by a different pace of life, one that has allowed time for reading, thinking, writing and walking Molly the Dog. My wife cannot believe that there is so much cricket, rugby and football that demands to be watched, the highlight for this South African being the Springboks winning the Rugby World Cup for a record fourth time.

So what comes next?  The English men are unlikely to match the success of the Lionesses in the Euros. Will there be much for Brits to celebrate at the Paris Olympics, and will Britain once again score nul point in Eurovision? There is likely to be a general election in 2024 and only a fool would bet against a thumping Labour majority. But how long will it take before the gloss comes off the Labour government as it adheres to Conservative spending plans while not growing the economy at a rate necessary to meet the hopes and aspirations of the electorate?

Will the Conservative Party exist this time next year, or will it have become the two parties that seem determined to emerge? Will the Greens retain Brighton Pavilion? It’s all to play for, in my opinion, as the Londoner Siân Berry is up against the local Tom Gray. For those of us who love elections, this is likely to be a bumper year, and I for one cannot wait for hostilities to commence!

Is Sir Keir Starmer Labour’s Weakest Link?

In recent times, the polling company, Survation, has had the best track record in getting its polls right in the run-up to a general election.  I have always trusted its forecasts more than others.

In its last poll before the end of the year, it has given Labour a 17 point lead, up three to 45, compared to the Conservative’s 28 points, up two points. (Both increases are compared to fieldwork undertaken in February 2023).

Survation has said: “We continue to find the Labour Party approximately 17 points ahead of the Conservatives with no observable positive reaction from the public to the various relaunches and campaigns coming from the Government throughout 2023.  Very roughly, at the coming General Election, the Conservative Party will need to have a 4-5 point lead in the polls over Labour, vs the current 17 point deficit, to secure a majority of 1 seat. This is probably the strongest argument for a ‘late’ October 2024 General Election – the certainty of losing if an early election was called.”

There are two other very interesting findings. The first is that the Green Party is down three points to just two. I can’t remember when the party was at such a low ebb.  This is probably the result of Labour continuing to fly high in the polls. It does not bode well for the Greens in their four target seats (including Brighton Pavilion which they will be defending).

Before Labour activists get too excited, the question on who would make the best prime minister will not make comfortable reading. For all the incompetence, failed relaunches and broken commitments of Rishi Sunak, he has actually closed the gap on Sir Keir Starmer. The Labour leader’s lead was nine points. It is now down to just six. Starmer is less popular than his party by eight points (45 to 37). Sunak, by comparison, is three points more popular than his party (31 to 28). At the start of the year Starmer was on 39 and Sunak 31. So Sunak’s rating has held, nudging up by one point, Starmer has reduced by three.

Labour is still on course for a thumping majority, but it must stop running the campaign as a presidential election because Starmer just doesn’t have it. He could end up being that slab of uneaten, unappetising turkey that is still in your fridge a week after Christmas.

Will Labour get its house in order and end the Council’s hypocrisy over tagging and graffiti?

(This item first appeared in the Brighton Argus on 22nd November 2023)

For many a long year Brighton and Hove City Council has had a hypocritical attitude towards tagging and graffiti. There have been claims that tagging was the responsibility of just a few individuals when that was patently untrue.  Then sanctions were threatened against business owners who didn’t clean up tagging on their property while the council exempted itself from such penalties on its properties.

Skateboard Park on The Level

Earlier this year I highlighted the shocking state of graffiti and tagging on The Level, specifically the children’s playground and skateboard park.  Within a week of me raising questions with the City Council, much of the tagging in the children’s area had been painted out.  Before I could become self-satisfied that this column had achieved one small victory, it was reported that the council had cleaned the area because of a planned visit by the Home Secretary, Suella Braverman!  Since then no further action has been taken, not least in cleaning up the graffiti and tagging in the skateboard park.

The Argus reported that Ms Braverman met Sussex Police Chief Constable Jo Shiner and Inspector James Ward to discuss success in tackling antisocial behaviour and violence in Brighton, and that the Home Secretary was seen at The Level where Sussex Police have used targeted, evidence-led policing to reduce crime in so-called “hotspot areas”. She was also told about how a partnership approach at The Level had reduced antisocial behaviour in the park by 55 per cent.

Those of us who live in the area and who do our shopping on nearby London Road might beg to disagree.  In the thirty years that I have lived and worked in this area I can honestly say that crime and anti-social behaviour is now at an all-time high.  I can accept that reported crime might have reduced but what is the point of reporting crime when the police do not respond.  There is open shoplifting and drug dealing, including on The Level, notwithstanding periodic initiatives by the police.

Last week the council agreed new tougher measures against taggers and fly tippers. Vandals caught tagging will by fined up to £500, an increase from £150, while fines for fly tipping will go from £400 to £1,000, littering from £150 to £300 and fly posting from £150 to £500.  Councillor Tim Rowkins, who chairs the the Environment, South Downs and Sea Committee, said: “Graffiti is a blight on the city and we need to get on top of the problem.”  He said that increasing fines was only as good as enforcement and that, in the past six months, three times as many graffiti perpetrators had been caught as in the same period last year.

There is some suggestion that taggers will be required to clean up their vandalism.  I won’t hold my breath.  Yes, there will be some high-profile examples of this happening, but I am unconvinced by this style of ‘muscular politics’. We’ve seen it before with Trump, that he would build the wall and “the best part is that Mexico will pay for it.”  A lot of people believed him.  Similarly Sunak pledged to “stop the boats” yet they still come. Braverman’s dream of seeing flights of illegal immigrants taking off for Rwanda remains just that, a dream and a very costly one at that.

I’ve written before that I hate graffiti, especially mindless, destructive tagging. I wrote: “Some shallow individual with obviously no artistic talent, in a pathetic attempt to be noticed, creeps around town at night spraying tags that are neither artful nor edifying. Some of the aerosol paints used are bad for the environment, and damage the brickwork. It puts private individuals, the council, charities and businesses to unnecessary expense.  While middle class Brighton might decry tagging, it has a contradictory and permissive attitude to so-called street art. I see very little difference between this and nighttime tagging. Both deface buildings and public places. While the artistic merit of street art might be one notch up from tagging, it does nothing for me.”

I wish the new Labour administration well with its initiative.  It already has had some success with clearing the weeds from our pavements, and for that they should be applauded.  I will continue to watch the state of graffiti and tagging in the city, starting with the appalling state of the skateboard park on The Level. The City Council previously clarified that the “only piece of graffiti that is acceptable would be commissioned murals” and “any other graffiti is classed as ‘problem graffiti’.”  Hopefully the Labour administration will demonstrate that, unlike its predecessor, it is not hypocritical and will get its own house in order on The Level.

Has Labour sabotaged its own campaigns in Brighton Pavilion and in East Worthing & Shoreham?

(This item first appeared in the Brighton Argus on 15th November 2023)

Following the King’s Speech, there is speculation now as to when the general election will be called. Three dates have been suggested: May, the early autumn, or December 2024. The election must be held by January 2025.

My guess is that Rishi Sunak will go for late September or early October. An April poll would be too early for any Budget giveaway to have any effect. December would mean very dark evenings, although a low turnout might benefit the Conservatives. The reason I believe it will be September or October is because any tax cut or give-away bonanza in the spring Budget will have had time to settle in.  However, any such election gimmick will probably be too little and too late for this walking-dead Conservative government.

In Brighton and Hove, the early autumn date would mean that students will not have returned in time to register to vote, something that would seriously disadvantage the Greens in Brighton Pavilion who rely on a large student turnout.

Previously, I have forecast that Labour would win seven seats in Sussex (including taking Brighton Pavilion from the Greens). I have predicted the same number of seats for the Conservatives with the Liberal Democrats winning two. This forecast is now being compromised by the inexplicable actions of the Labour Party which appears to be doing its utmost not to win in East Worthing and Shoreham, and in Brighton Pavilion.

In the Worthing seat, not a single local candidate has been shortlisted. The party has denied party members the options of selecting as their candidate either of two respected Labour councillors, Cat Arnold and Carl Walker, such a shortsighted decision. Labour has performed phenomenally well to gain control of the Borough Council, yet the party seems not to want to build on its success in this constituency. Meanwhile, in Worthing West, the Labour leader of the council, Dr Becky Cooper, has been shortlisted. The party would be foolish not to select her as its candidate as she stands far-and-away the best chance of being elected.

Labour has never won either Worthing seat but the migration of families from Brighton has changed the demographics, just as happened previously in Hove and Portslade, once the safest-of-safe Conservative seats, now solidly Labour.

The Green Party’s Siân Berry who has hit the ground running in Brighton Pavilion

Meanwhile, in Brighton Pavilion, the Greens selected Siân Berry several months ago. She has hit the ground running and her name recognition is increasing. Labour, on the other hand, is dragging its feet. Originally the selection was due to take place in September. Two contenders, Eddie Izzard and Tom Gray, have already announced that they are seeking the nomination. Even if the selection was to take place now, the problem for Labour is it would run into the Christmas period and its candidate, whoever that might be, will have lost three months of invaluable campaigning time. Instead, they will have to wait until the new year, in the depths of winter, before launching their campaign. This would be less of a problem if the election is in September or October but might prove to be a fatal error if Sunak goes for May 2nd or 9th.

There is still no word from the leader of the Council, Bella Sankey: will she be seeking the nomination? The timing of the decision by Caroline Lucas to stand down has not helped Bella. As a relatively new councillor, and having been leader for just over six months, it might appear that Bella is being opportunist by becoming the candidate and subsequently MP, jumping from one opportunity to the next to get into Parliament. 

But if she doesn’t put herself forward now, which would be a shame, the opportunity to become an MP in the City she loves will have passed. By 2029, whoever is elected in 2024, be it Siân Berry or one of the other less-than-convincing Labour contenders, will have established themselves as the sitting MP and they will be hard, if not impossible, to shift. By 2029, Bella won’t be the exciting new kid on the block but she will be burdened by the failings of her administration, a fate that inevitably befalls every leader of the Council.

And by 2029, Labour will not be enjoying the bumper lead it currently has in the polls, thanks to the ever-increasing shambles of a government being led by Rishi Sunak. Rather, a sense of sheer disappointment and bewildered incomprehension will have set in as the Starmer government fails to provide the improvements and the housing that the country needs, unlike the Blair government which on the domestic front in 1997 things really did get better. 

The Return of David Cameron to Sunak’s Government of the Walking Dead

When in trouble, to whom does a Conservative prime minister turn? An old Etonian and Oxford graduate, of course. Enter right, the Rt Hon Lord Cameron, previously David Cameron, the new Foreign Secretary.

There are two issues: is it acceptable to have a Foreign Secretary who is a member of the House of Lords, and is it right to have Cameron himself?

As for Cameron, he said his biggest regret is Brexit. “Chaos, mayhem, despondency: my work here is done” might well have been his message as he stood down as Prime Minister in 2016. He failed to take responsibility of his handiwork. He just walked away having created the greatest crisis in recent memory.

Is there anyone more despised from both left and right? Remainers blame him for calling the referendum. Leavers despise him for campaigning against Leave and for not seeing through the will of the people.  From my perspective, he was the architect, along with George Osborne, of the most vicious programme of austerity, for undermining the NHS and the welfare state, and for his reckless foreign policy, such as the west’s intervention in Libya. 

He remains an arch Remainer. How can he hope to enjoy the confidence of even his own backbenchers.  Recently he criticised Sunak for abandoning HS2 (one of Cameron’s vanity projects).  His appointment is just another indication of the walking dead nature of the Sunak government.

Can and should a member of the Lords be Foreign Secretary? I am relaxed on this. In fact there might be some merit in having our Foreign Secretary who is not being distracted by constituency work and having to campaign to hold his or her seat at elections. Their focus, especially at a time like this, should be totally on the international situation.

But how can a Lord be held accountable by the House of Commons? Current rules don’t allow it. I am pleased that the Speaker has asked for advice on this. The rules that currently forbid it can and must be changed. If the Commons is too stuck up its own sense of its own historical precedence that it cannot make a minor operational change to allow the Foreign Secretary to appear before it, then the House itself will be to blame.

A Foreign Secretary in the Lords? Not a problem. It’s been done before in recent times (Lord Carrington). David Cameron? Oh my goodness!

Are the Conservatives on course to lose all seats in Sussex?

(This item first appeared in the Brighton Argus on 25th October 2023)

The King accepts the resignation of Liz Truss and asks Rishi Sunak to form a government

Today is the anniversary of Rishi Sunak becoming Prime Minister. Earlier in the day, the outgoing PM, Liz Truss, had been to the Palace to see the new King, just 49 days after she had flown to Balmoral where the late Queen had invited her to form a new government. Following years of tradition, the King asked Sunak, who had been elected the leader of the Conservative Party the previous day, to take over.

The Conservatives are well-versed in forming governments. After all, they have had five prime ministers in just seven years. Sunak has lasted longer than Truss, but how much longer will he survive? There are already rumours that members of the Conservative Party are submitting letters to the Chair of their backbench committee calling for a vote of no confidence in him. 

It would be understandable if a combination of their lead in the polls, and last Thursday’s two by-election results in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth led Labour activists, MPs and the party’s leadership to believe that a Labour victory in the general election is now nailed on. They are probably right. However, the Labour leadership has had political-Botox that makes outward-showing signs of confidence impossible.

The Conservatives have dismissed the by-election results, saying that it is almost inevitable that sitting governments lose by-elections, and that there is still a year until the general election. Anything can happen between now and then.

But make no mistake, these by-election results were sensational even though Tamworth was a Labour seat until going Conservative in 2010. Mid Bedfordshire was the more remarkable result, overturning a Conservative majority of almost 25,000.

It is unlikely that Labour will hold Mid Bedfordshire come the general election. Worryingly for Labour, there was no groundswell of support for the Labour candidate. In fact, the Labour vote went down by 156 from the 2019 election. The Conservatives point to the low turnout, saying that it was their voters who just didn’t turn out and that there was no enthusiasm for Labour and its lacklustre leader, Sir Keir Starmer. A modest increase in turnout by Conservative voters next year will see it returning to its traditional blue.

Meanwhile, election-guru, Professor Sir John Curtis, points out that a failure to get your vote out is indicative of your party’s malaise. And that is certainly true for the Conservatives. Which Tory party activist in their right mind can feel any enthusiasm for the bumblings and fumblings of the current government. Like a wonky shopping trolley, they lurch from one crisis to another. 

Some in the current government make former minister Chris Grayling look vaguely competent. It was Grayling who destroyed the probation service, created chaos in the prison system, and awarded ferry contracts to a company with no ferries, a company that operates out of a harbour that cannot accommodate … ferries. Anyone would have thought Grayling was once in charge of the high-speed train initiative, HS2, that has gone over-budget by billions of Pounds and which the government is now curtailing. Wait a minute, Failing Grayling was once in charge of that, too.

The Covid enquiry is showing that we had a prime minister (Boris Johnson) who was initially disengaged. As Churchill said of the Americans, Johnson could always be relied on to do the right thing … once he had exhausted all other possibilities. He locked down too late, and unlocked too soon. He ridiculed Starmer saying that the Leader of the Opposition had wanted to cancel Christmas while he, as Prime Minister, wanted restrictions to be lifted. Yet only a few days later he had to do just what Starmer had called for. All this time he was loyally supported by his poodle Chancellor, Rishi Sunak.

And in the last week or so we learned through the enquiry that Sunak, as Chancellor, launched the ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ initiative in spite of misgivings by the government’s leading scientific advisers including Professor Dame Angela McLean who dubbed him ‘Dr Death the Chancellor’. 

For just a bit of fun, Election Maps U.K. applied the Tamworth result across the country. If the swing and result there were to be applied to every constituency, Labour would have a majority of 424 seats with 537 MPs, the Lib Dem’s 46, the Conservatives 29 and others 19. On this basis the Conservatives would win no seats whatsoever in Sussex. That won’t happen, of course, but Sunak will have to pull one giant rabbit out of his magicians hat to avoid a humiliating defeat next year.

The Labour Party could learn lessons from the 2016 Trump campaign

(This item first appeared in the Brighton Argus on 13th September 2023)

The recent sight of European Union flags being handed out and waved at the Last Night of the Proms was a reminder, if any was needed, that many ‘Remain’ voters have not got over the Referendum result. They were incredulous that ‘Leave’ even had any chance of success, and are still in traumatised by the result.

My advice to them is to get over it and learn lessons. The referendum wasn’t the only shock. The liberal left didn’t think for a moment that Trump could become President in 2016, nor that the charlatan Boris Johnson could become Prime Minister, let alone winning a handsome majority and capturing the ‘Red Wall’ working class north. And now complacency is setting in about the 2024 general election.

Labour will more than likely win and its lacklustre, inconsistent, U-Turning leader, Sir Keir Starmer, will become prime minister. Yes, it is more than likely but it is definitely no certainty.

Labour activists, especially in areas like Brighton and Hove where the party is riding high following the local election results, is confident that it will win all three seats. I have written before that this will depend on its choice of candidate in Brighton Pavilion. Choose well, perhaps selecting Council leader Bella Sankey, and the odds will definitely be in Labour’s favour. Choose badly, perhaps a non-local candidate, and one advantage over the Greens will be lost allowing Siân Berry a realistic chance of holding Caroline Lucas’ seat.

Labour nationally is doing a great job in dampening expectations and sucking any semblance of enthusiasm from its campaign. I squirm with embarrassment and shout at the television every time a Stepford Frontbencher is asked what Labour will do in government. They are all on message in critiquing the latest government fiasco – they have been given ample opportunities to hone their attacks.  But they lose credibility and support every time they reply with their hollowed-out, lifeless eyes and robotic answers about needing to see what the economic circumstances will be once in government. 

Kellyanne Conway, Donald Trump and Steve Bannon

The Rishi Sunak shine – that he isn’t Theresa May, Boris Johnson or Liz Truss – has worn off. But don’t be fooled that there isn’t someone in the wings waiting to do a Trump. Trump’s main strategist in the run up to polling day in 2016 was Steve Bannon who has said that one of Trump’s advantages over Hillary Clinton was that he spoke in a voice that did not sound political. … Clinton spoke like the trained politician she was, that her tempo was overly practiced, and even when telling the truth, he said, she sounded like she was lying to you.

That’s exactly how I feel about many Labour frontbenchers. Perhaps those of us who identify as being on the left of British politics should be grateful that the right isn’t led by someone with the seductive brass of Johnson, the mischievous anti-politician rhetoric of Nigel Farage, and the personal appeal of Georgia Malone.

A problem for the left is that its electoral base is well-established, feeding off formulaic touchstones like the NHS, education, and LGBT and other minority rights. But that support, as we saw in 2019, is soft, with Red Wall voters flocking to Johnson’s populist appeal about getting Brexit done and getting control of our borders. Many of these voters will not return to Labour not least because the party has no credible, convincing alternatives on these and other issues that people are concerned about.

Trump’s campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, said that “there’s not a single hidden Hillary voter in the entire country. They’re all out and about.”  She coined the phrase “the hidden Trump voter”.  Labour has traditionally relied on what proved to be the hidden Johnson voters, ignoring their communities, turning a blind-eye to poorly performing NHS Trusts and corrupt Labour councils. They took these voters for granted, focusing instead on the politics and sensitivities of the metropolitan elites in London, Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds and Brighton. 

But perhaps the worst aspect of the approach by Labour is that it doesn’t offer the hope that Blair provided in 1997 that “things can only get better.” We all know that the country is in a mess and that the economy is up a certain creek without a paddle. But by sticking to Conservative tax plans and spending restrictions, it looks as if the Labour elite is comfortable with managing the further decline of public services as long as they are in office. But without offering hope or convincing answers about what they will do, they might not make it into government.